Real Jobs NC

WRAL: Real Jobs attacks on behalf of Republican candidates

taylor — Mon, 08 Oct 2012 22:03:27 +0000

By Mark Binker

October 8, 2012

Real Jobs NC, the outside spending group linked to Republican causes, has let loose its first volley of ads in television races. You can see many of them on the group’s YouTube channel.

A quick review of FCC public files doesn’t show any commercial buys on broadcast stations in the Raleigh market, although they have been spotted on cable channels.

At least three of the ads are double-billings for a local legislative candidate and Republican Pat McCrory, who is running for governor. Ads for Nathan Ramsey, who is running for a state House seat in the western part of the state, John Szoka, who is running for a state House seat in the Fayetteville area, and Sen. Warren Daniel, who is running for re-election to his Morganton-based seat, all feature McCrory. The ads say that Gov. Bev Perdue and Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton, who is the Democrat running for governor, have wrecked the state’s economy and use train images to back up that notion. The bulk of the commercial is spent talking up the legislative candidate and McCrory as alternatives.

In other races, the Real Jobs ads are classic attacks. None appear to offer outright falsehoods, but a little context would be useful in understanding the claims.

For example, both Sen. Doug Berger and Rep. Marian McLawhorn are Democratic incumbents running in swing districts. The Real Jobs commercials focus on votes the pair cast over the past three years.

The line: “Raising taxes during a recession? Not a good idea. But Sen. Doug Berger thought it was.”

The line: “Remember Marian McLawhorn’s vote to raise our taxes $1 billion?”

The background: We’ll leave aside the macro-economic argument about raising taxes in a recession. However, it is true that both McLawhorn and Berger voted for SB 202 in 2009. That was the annual state budget bill and it did include a state sales tax increase that was projected to raise $803.5 million in 2009-10 and $1.06 billion in 2010-11.

The ad is written to make that sound like a huge tax increase. Whether it was or not might depend on your perspective. For consumers that was a one-penny (or one percentage point, if you prefer) increase at the cash register, which amounts to paying $1 more on a $100 purchase. The budget bill made small tweaks to other taxes and fees, but the sales tax increase was by far the biggest change in revenue.

The line: “Doug Berger even sponsored legislation to raise his own pay, while voting to raise our taxes.”

The background: SB 426 of 2009 would have raised salaries of lawmakers by the same average amount as those of other state workers. So if state workers got a 2 percent raise, legislators would have gotten a 2 percent raise after the next election. It’s worth noting that the bill was never heard after being assigned to committee.

Rank and file lawmakers earn $13,951 for their legislative duties, plus an expense allowance of $559 per month.

The line: “Doug Berger voted against bills that help small business owners create new jobs.”

The line: “She (McLawhorn) voted against bills that help small business owners create new jobs, even voting against limiting government spending and debt.”

The background: Both commercials targeting McLawhorn and Berger take them to task for voting against the annual budget bill, HB 200, in 2011. Whether the budget would actually “help small business owners create new jobs” requires some bit of interpretation.

The Republican sponsors of the legislation would argue the budget bill included a number of items – including allowing the sales tax increase mentioned earlier in the commercial to expire – that would help small business owners.

In Berger’s commercial, Real Jobs also cites S 33, a bill that limited the damages patients could seek during a medical malpractice suit. McLawhorn’s commercial references SB 464, which cuts back on borrowing authorized in the 2009 budget bill. Berger and McLawhorn did vote against the bills in question.

Old favorites

One other ad targets former lawmaker Cullie Tarleton, a Democratic who is running against Rep. Jonathan Jordan in a rematch of the 2010 race, which Jordan won. This year’s anti-Tarleton ad features the lines: “He (Tarleton) voted to spend $200,000 on a Shakespeare festival and $2 million on a playground for polar bears. Real Jobs used the polar bear accusation to great effect in mailers during the 2010 election.

Tarleton did vote for a budget that contained the two items in question. It’s worth noting that the Shakespeare festival is the North Carolina Shakespeare Festival in High Point, which has received state support several times. The “polar bear playground” is the polar bear exhibit at the N.C. Zoo. The ad doesn’t present any evidence that Tarleton went out of his way to lobby for these items, which were part of a $19.6 billion budget.

Source: WRAL

WRAL: Real Jobs getting ready to launch first round of 2012 ads

taylor — Wed, 19 Sep 2012 20:27:39 +0000

By Mark Binker

Published: 2012-09-17

Real Jobs NC, a 527 group that spent heavily to aid Republicans in 2010s legislative elections, will begin airing ads and sending mailers this month, according to its executive director.

“We’ll also being doing some mail in the governor’s race,” said Roger Knight, the group’s lawyer and acting executive director.

Real Jobs is backed by Art Pope, a former Raleigh lawmaker and president of Variety Wholesalers, the company that owns Roses and Maxway. A disclosure form filed with the IRS shows other board members include David Powers, a vice president with the parent group of tobacco giant RJ Reynolds, Allen Grant, CEO of textile giant Glenn Raven, Greenville-based lawyer John Marin and Murchison Biggs, a Lumberton businessman.

The group claims financial support from Republican State Leadership Committee, a national group, and in general backs GOP candidates.

“We’d probably rather describe them as pro-business candidates,” Knight said. “I think you’re right, though. You’ll see the majority of them are probably Republicans.”

Real Jobs spent heavily in swing districts in 2010, areas where Republicans defeated Democratic incumbents. Knight said closely contested elections would again be a target for the group, but he did not want to specify exactly which contests would be affected until the mailers dropped or TV ads aired.

Loophole

In preparation for the fall election, Real Jobs may have discovered a loophole to the state’s ban on campaign involvement for lobbyists.

In an advisory letter issued by the State Board of Elections Sept. 10, elections director Gary Bartlett advises Knight that contributions to Real Jobs NC are not, technically, political contributions under North Carolina law. From the letter:

N.C.G.S. § 163-278.13B and N.C.G.S. § 163-278.13C address the prohibitions on lobbyist contributions. These statutes prohibit lobbyists from making contributions to candidates for the General Assembly and the Council of State and their candidate campaign committees. It does not prohibit lobbyists from making contributions to other political committees, including independent expenditure political committees. Further, money donated to a group making independent expenditures, such as your client, would not be considered a contribution I and if the source of the money was from a lobbyist, it would not be prohibited by any campaign finance statute. Therefore, independent expenditure groups, such as your client, may accept donations from lobbyists.

Knight said that Real Jobs wasn’t specifically targeting lobbyists as potential donors. However, because the definition of lobbying is so broad, some potential donors were afraid they might accidentally step over a line.

“In some instances, at least, folks have expressed some concern. They didn’t want to get into trouble,” he said.

While Real Jobs may be aiming to make sure it doesn’t get donors in trouble, the letter points to a major loophole in the 2007 ban on lobbyist involvement in political races.

“Like water rolling downhill, campaign money kind of finds its path,” said Bob Phillips, director of the North Carolina chapter of Common Cause. He was surprised by the Board of Elections ruling and described it as a “major loophole” in the law. The lobbyist ban, he said, was meant to prevent one special interest or set of professional lobbyists from having undue influence over the political process.

While lobbyists might not be able to give directly to campaigns, contributions to 527s are publicly disclosed and, in the case of groups like Real Jobs, could serve as a proxy for candidates of one party or the other.

“I don’t think it’s healthy,” Phillips said of the potential to reintroduce lobbyists into the political process.

In theory, this SBOE ruling could clear the way for lobbyist contributions to other types of independent expenditure groups as well, including 501(c)4 groups that don’t have to reveal their donors.

Source: WRAL

Civitas Flash Poll: Jones Ahead in NC HD 65

taylor — Wed, 19 Sep 2012 15:06:59 +0000

Sept. 14, 2012

RALEIGH — With the 2012 legislative campaigns entering the final months, the Civitas Institute has flash-polled likely voters in North Carolina House District 65, which includes Caswell County and part of Rockingham County. The incumbent representative, Bert Jones, leads Democratic standard-bearer William E. Osborne, a psychologist and businessman.

The Civitas Flash Poll of 300 registered voters with a margin of error of 5.8 percent was taken Sept. 11-12. It showed Jones with a 19 percentage-point lead over Osborne, 56 percent to 37 percent. Democrats are supporting Osborne 62 percent to 29 percent; Jones leads among Republican voters 89 percent to 6 percent. Unaffiliated voters favor Jones, 77 percent to 22 percent.

In the presidential race, among district voters Mitt Romney is ahead of President Obama, 50 percent to 41 percent. Romney is capturing 89 percent of Republicans and 51 percent of unaffiliated voters. Romney is pulling 25 percent of the Democratic vote, with 68 percent supporting Obama.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory leads in most statewide polls, and that holds true in House Dist. 65. He leads Democratic Lt. Governor Walter Dalton 53 percent to 34 percent, with Libertarian Barbara Howe registering 5 percent. In the district, Republicans break 85 percent for McCrory and 33 percent of Democrats indicate they would vote for him. Among unaffiliated voters, McCrory leads Dalton 61 to 15 percent.

By a better than 2-to-1 margin, district voters agree that people should be required to show photo identification to cast their ballots. Sixty-eight percent of those polled said voters should be required to present photo ID; 29 percent opposed the requirement.

In the Civitas Flash Poll, 55 percent said the state is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 34 percent saying it’s headed in the right direction. In addition, asked about how the North Carolina economy will fare this year, 30 percent said things will get worse and 28 percent said things will get worse, while 33 percent said it would stay the same.

Overall, voter intensity in the district was strong among all voters, with 97 percent saying they are certain they will vote, and 3 percent saying they are likely to vote. This suggests that neither side will have a problem turning out their voters on Election Day.

About the Poll: This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, respondents were weighted using the most recent US Census estimates for age, gender, ethnic origin and region, to align the sample to the population. Research methodology, questionnaire design and fieldwork for this survey were completed by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

Source: Civitas Institute

Civitas Flash Poll: Lawson Edges Tine in NC HD 6

taylor — Wed, 19 Sep 2012 15:02:42 +0000

Sept. 13, 2012

RALEIGH — With the 2012 legislative campaigns entering the final months, the Civitas Institute has flash-polled likely voters in North Carolina House District 6, which includes Dare, Washington and Hyde counties, and part of Beaufort County. Republican Mattie Lawson, a small-business owner, has a slim lead over Democratic standard-bearer Paul Tine, also a business owner.

The Civitas Flash Poll of 300 registered voters with a margin of error of 5.8 percent was taken Sept. 9-10. It showed Lawson with a 3 percentage-point lead over Tine, 45 percent to 42 percent. This lead is within the margin of error. Democrats are supporting Tine 61 percent to 22 percent; Lawson leads among Republican voters 84 percent to 11 percent. Unaffiliated voters are evenly split, with 43 percent supporting each candidate.

In the presidential race, among district voters, Mitt Romney edges President Obama, 49 percent to 47 percent. Romney is capturing 86 percent of Dist. 6 Republicans and 48 percent of unaffiliated voters. Romney is pulling 26 percent of the Democratic vote, with that bloc of eastern NC voters breaking 71 percent for Obama.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory leads in most statewide polls, and that holds true in House Dist. 6. He leads Democratic Lt. Governor Walter Dalton 46 percent to 38 percent, with Libertarian Barbara Howe registering 5 percent. In the district, Republicans break 87 percent for McCrory and 24 percent of Democrats indicate they would vote for him. Among unaffiliated voters, McCrory leads Dalton 41 to 32 percent.

By a 2-to-1 margin, district voters agree that people should be required to show photo identification to cast their ballots. Sixty-six percent of those polled said voters should be required to present photo ID; 31 percent opposed the requirement.

In the Civitas Flash Poll, 51 percent said the state is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 35 percent saying it’s headed in the right direction. In addition, district voters’ opinion on the economy was slightly positive, with 26 percent saying things will get better and 22 percent saying things will get worse, while 43 percent said it would stay the same.

Overall, voter intensity in the district was strong among all voters, with 97 percent saying they are certain they will vote, and 2 percent saying they are likely to vote. This suggests that neither side will have a problem turning out their voters on Election Day.

Source: Civitas Institute

Civitas Flash Poll: Cook Leading in Senate Dist. 1

taylor — Wed, 19 Sep 2012 14:57:08 +0000

Sept. 6, 2012

RALEIGH — With the 2012 legislative campaigns entering the final months, the Civitas Institute has flash-polled likely voters in NC Senate District 1 in the northeastern part of the state. Republican Bill Cook, a retired power company executive, faces Sen. Stan White (D-Dare), who was named to the seat in 2011 after Marc Basnight resigned.

The Civitas Flash Poll of 450 registered voters with a margin of error of 4.7 percent was taken August 22 and 23. It showed Cook with an 8 percentage-point lead over White, 49 percent to 41 percent. Democrats are supporting White 67 percent to 19 percent; Cook leads among Republican voters 86 percent to 11 percent. Unaffiliated voters, which make up 23 percent of voters in this district, are breaking to Cook by a 5-point margin, with 46 percent backing him, compared to 41 percent for the Democrat.

At the top of the ballot, Republicans hold leads among Senate Dist. 1 voters. In the presidential race, Mitt Romney leads President Obama, 55 percent to 41 percent. Romney is capturing 92 percent of Dist. 1 Republicans and 55 percent of unaffiliated voters. Romney is pulling 23 percent of the Democratic vote, with that bloc of northeastern NC voters breaking 73 percent for President Obama.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory leads in statewide polls, and that holds true in Senate Dist. 1. He leads Democratic Lt. Governor Walter Dalton 55 percent to 35 percent, with Libertarian Barbara Howe registering 2 percent. In the district, McCrory’s numbers track closely to Romney’s, with Republicans breaking 88 percent for McCrory and 27 percent of Democrats indicating they would vote for him. Among unaffiliated voters, McCrory leads Dalton 54 to 30 percent.

By a better than 2-to-1 margin, district voters agree that people should be required to show photo identification to cast their ballots. Sixty-nine percent of those polled said voters should be required to present photo ID; 29 percent opposed the requirement.

In the Civitas Flash Poll, 50 percent said the state is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 38 percent saying it’s headed in the right direction. In addition, district voters’ opinion on the economy was split, with 28 percent saying things will get worse and 25 percent saying things will get better, while 41 percent said it would stay the same.

Overall, voter intensity in the district was strong among all voters, with 97 percent saying they are certain they will vote. This indicates that neither side will have a problem turning out their voters on Election Day.

Source: Civitas Institute

Civitas Flash Poll: Jeter Leads in NC House Dist. 92

taylor — Mon, 17 Sep 2012 19:15:38 +0000

Aug. 29, 2012

RALEIGH — With the 2012 legislative campaigns entering the final months, the Civitas Institute has flash-polled likely voters in NC House District 92 in Mecklenburg County. Republican Charles Jeter, a businessman, faces Democrat Robin Bradford.

The survey of 350 registered voters with a margin of error of plus/minus 5.3 percent was taken August 18 – 20. It showed Jeter with an 18 percentage-point lead over Bradford, 53 percent to 35 percent. Democrats are supporting Bradford 73 percent to 17 percent; Jeter leads among Republican voters, who make up the largest voting bloc in the district, 88 percent to 2 percent. Unaffiliated voters support Jeter by a slender margin, with 44 percent backing him, compared to 42 percent for the Democrat.

At the top of the ballot, Republicans hold leads among district voters. In the presidential race, voters from that area pick Mitt Romney ahead of President Obama, 55 percent to 40 percent. Romney is capturing 97 percent of the district’s Republicans and 43 percent of unaffiliated voters. Romney is pulling 16 percent of the Democratic vote, with that bloc of Mecklenburg County voters breaking 83 percent for Obama.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory leads in statewide polls, and as might be expected, the former Charlotte mayor holds a big lead in the district. He leads Democratic Lt. Governor Walter Dalton 67 percent to 26 percent, with Libertarian Barbara Howe registering 2 percent. In the poll, McCrory’s GOP support tracks closely to Romney’s, with Republicans breaking 94 percent for McCrory, with a third of Democrats indicating they would vote for him. Among independents, McCrory leads Dalton 71 to 19 percent.

By better than 2-to-1, district voters agree that people should be required to show photo identification to cast their ballots. Sixty-nine percent of those polled said voters should be required to present photo ID; 29 percent opposed the requirement.

In the flash poll, 53 percent said the state is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 34 percent saying it’s headed in the right direction. In addition, voters’ opinion on the economy was split, with 23 percent saying things will get worse and 25 percent saying things will get better, while 49 percent said it would stay the same.

Overall, voter intensity in the district was strong among all voters, with 98 percent saying they are certain they will vote. This indicates that neither side will have a problem turning out their voters on Election Day.

Source: Civitas Institute

Civitas Flash Poll: Hunt Leading in Senate Dist. 15

taylor — Mon, 17 Sep 2012 19:09:29 +0000

Aug. 28, 2012

RALEIGH — With the 2012 legislative campaigns entering the final months, the Civitas Institute has flash-polled likely voters in NC Senate District 15 in Wake County. Republican Sen. Neal Hunt faces businessman Sig Hutchinson, the Democratic candidate.

The survey of 450 registered voters with a margin of error of 4.7 percent was taken August 18 and 19. It showed incumbent Hunt with a 15 percentage-point lead over Hutchinson, 52 percent to 37 percent. Democrats are supporting Hutchinson 69 percent to 20 percent; Hunt leads among Republican voters 84 percent to 8 percent. Unaffiliated voters, which make up 29 percent of voters in this district, are breaking to Hunt by a 13-point margin, with 47 percent backing him, compared to 34 percent for the Democrat.

At the top of the ballot, Republicans hold leads among Senate Dist. 15 voters. In the presidential race, in the district Mitt Romney leads President Obama, 51 percent to 42 percent. Romney is capturing 88 percent of Dist. 15 Republicans and 45 percent of unaffiliated voters. Romney is pulling 16 percent of the Democratic vote, with that bloc of Wake County voters breaking 80 percent for President Obama.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory leads in statewide polls, and that holds true in the district. He leads Democratic Lt. Governor Walter Dalton 54 percent to 36 percent, with Libertarian Barbara Howe registering 6 percent. In the poll, McCrory’s numbers track closely to Romney’s, with Republicans breaking 87 percent for McCrory and 19 percent of Democrats indicating they would vote for him. Among independents, McCrory leads Dalton 53 to 26 percent.

In the flash poll, 59 percent said the state is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 29 percent saying it’s headed in the right direction. In addition, voters’ opinion on the economy was split, with 22 percent saying things will get worse and 25 percent saying things will get better, while 44 percent said it would stay the same.

Overall, voter intensity in the district was strong among all voters, with 96 percent saying they are certain they will vote. This indicates that neither side will have a problem turning out their voters on Election Day.

Source: Civitas Institute

Civitas Flash Poll: Ramsey Bucks Dem Trend in Dist. 115

taylor — Mon, 17 Sep 2012 19:02:38 +0000

Aug. 27, 2012

RALEIGH — With the 2012 legislative campaigns entering the final months, the Civitas Institute has flash-polled likely voters in NC House District 115 in Buncombe County. Republican Nathan Ramsey, a former county commissioner, faces attorney Susan Wilson, the Democratic candidate.

The survey of 350 registered voters with a margin of error of 5.3 percent was taken August 18 and 19. It showed Ramsey with a 6 percentage point lead over Wilson, 49 percent to 43 percent. Democrats are supporting Wilson 75 percent to 22 percent; Ramsey leads among Republican voters 93 percent to 2 percent. Unaffiliated voters, which make up one-fourth of voters in this district, are breaking to Ramsey by a 12-point margin, with 49 percent backing him, compared to 37 percent for Wilson.

At the top of the ballot, Democrats hold leads among Dist. 115 voters. In the presidential race, in the district Mitt Romney is trailing President Obama, 42 percent to 50 percent. Romney is capturing 87 percent of the Republicans and 43 percent of unaffiliated voters. Romney is pulling 15 percent of the Democratic vote, with that bloc of Buncombe County voters breaking 81 percent for President Obama.

Though Republican gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory leads in statewide polls, in the Civitas Flash Poll of Dist. 115 he trails Lt. Governor Walter Dalton, 41 percent to 45 percent, with Libertarian Barbara Howe registering 9 percent. In the poll, McCrory’s numbers track very closely to Romney’s, with Republicans breaking 87 percent for McCrory and 15 percent of Democrats indicating they would vote for the former Charlotte mayor. Among independents, McCrory leads Dalton 40 to 32 percent

By a clear margin, district voters agree that people should be required to show photo identification to cast their ballots. Fifty-five percent of those polled said voters should be required to present photo ID; 41 percent opposed the requirement.

Nearly two-thirds of the voters in District 115 think the state is on the wrong track, with 62 percent saying it’s headed in the wrong direction, compared to 25 percent saying it’s headed in the right direction. In addition, voters’ opinion on the economy was split, with 23 percent saying things will get worse and the identical percentage saying things will get better, while 47 percent said it would stay the same.

Overall, voter intensity in the district was strong among all voters, indicating that neither side will have a problem turning out their voters on Election Day.

Source: Civitas Institute

Civitas Flash Poll: GOP holds solid edge in Dist. 51

taylor — Mon, 17 Sep 2012 18:56:46 +0000

Aug. 24, 2012
RALEIGH — With the 2012 legislative campaigns entering the final months the Civitas Institute has flash-polled likely voters in House District 51 in Lee County and part of Harnett County. The seat is currently held by Republican Mike Stone, a Sanford businessman. He is being challenged by Democrat Bill Tatum, who is retired after owning businesses in Sanford.

The survey of 305 likely voters with a margin of error of 5.3 percent was taken August 18 and 19. It showed Stone with a 10-point lead over Tatum, 50 percent to 40 percent. Democrats are supporting Tatum 67 percent to 19 percent; Stone leads in Republican voters, 86 percent to 7 percent. Unaffiliated voters, which make up one-fifth of voters in this district, are breaking to Stone by a 24-point margin, with 59 percent backing him, compared to 35 percent for Tatum.

Republicans are running strongly in the district with Pat McCrory and Mitt Romney holding sizable leads. In the presidential contest, Mitt Romney is leading President Obama 59 percent to 33 percent. Romney is capturing 95 percent of the Republicans and 59 percent of unaffiliated voters. Romney is pulling 32 percent of the Democratic vote, with that bloc of voters breaking 57 percent for President Obama.

In the gubernatorial contest, Republican McCrory is holding an even larger lead over Lt. Governor Walter Dalton, 60 percent to 34 percent, with Libertarian Barbara Howe registering 2 percent. McCrory’s numbers track very closely to Romney’s, with Republicans breaking 90 percent for McCrory and 37 percent of Democrats indicating they would vote for McCrory. He also is running very strongly with unaffiliated voters, winning them almost 2-to-1, with 62 percent backing the GOP standard-bearer compared to 33 percent for Dalton.

By an overwhelming margin, district voters agree that people should be required to show photo identification. Seventy-eight percent of those polled said voters should be required to present photo ID; only 19 percent opposed the requirement.

Forty-five percent of voters in the district view themselves as conservatives compared with only 7 percent who view themselves as liberals. Forty percent self-identify as moderates.

More than half of the voters think the state is on the wrong track, with 59 percent saying it’s headed in the wrong direction to 32 percent saying it’s headed in the right direction. In addition, voters’ opinion on the economy is split with 24 percent saying things will get worse and 24 percent saying things will get better, while 46 percent said it would stay the same

Overall, voter intensity in the district was strong among all voters, indicating that neither side will have a problem turning out their voters on Election Day.

About the Poll: This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. The pollster’s report includes the geography that was surveyed; the date(s) interviews were conducted, the number of respondents who answered each question and the theoretical margin of sampling error for each question. Where necessary, respondents were weighted using the most recent US Census estimates for age, gender, ethnic origin and region, to align the sample to the population. Research methodology, questionnaire design and fieldwork for this survey were completed by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

Source: Civitas Institute

SPS: John Szoka (R) Holds Strong Lead Over Eddie Dees (D) in NC House 45

taylor — Mon, 17 Sep 2012 18:35:54 +0000

Szoka’s 15.3 % ballot advantage will be tough for Dees to overcome in open-seat contest.

August 31, 2012

RALEIGH – The most recent Strategic Insights Survey shows Republican John Szoka leading his Democratic opponent Eddie Dees 46% to 30.7% with 23.3% of the voters being undecided.

The poll also reveals that more voters have a favorable impression of Republican Szoka. 22.3% of voters having a favorable impression of Szoka to 12.7% unfavorable. Dees image numbers were 17% favorable, 18% unfavorable.

Both candidates are relatively undefined with 65% of voters have no opinion or have never heard of John Szoka and 65% of voters as well having no opinion or having never heard of Eddie Dees.

Given the low image numbers, undecided voters are up for grabs in the race with 87.2% having no opinion or have never heard of Eddie Dees and 91.4% having no opinion or have never heard of John Szoka. On the generic ballot test, 34.3% of undecided voters favored a Democratic candidate for the state legislature to 31.4% who favored a Republican candidate, while 34.3% of undecided voters were not sure.

Both Republican candidates Mitt Romney and Pat McCrory posted a strong ballot showing with Romney leading President Obama 58% to 35% with 7 % undecided. Republican gubernatorial nominee Pat McCrory leads Democratic Lt. Governor Walter Dalton 51.7% to 25.3% with 13.7% of the voters undecided. The undecided voters will most likely break for McCrory with 36.6% favoring a Republican for state legislature and 26.8% favoring a Democratic candidate.

The generic ballot test question on the state legislature shows a 19% point advantage for Republicans with 53.7% of voters stating a preference for a Republican candidate and 34.7% preferring a Democratic candidate. With a strong showing at the top of the ticket for the Republican candidates it will be extremely difficult for Dees to overcome this political climate in House District 45.

Over half of the voters thought the state is headed in the wrong direction 55.0% to 29.0% right direction. In addition, voters are not optimistic about the economy improving with 23% saying it would get worse, 32.30% said it would stay the same while only 36.7% said it would improve.

About the Strategic Insights Survey

The Strategic Insights Survey is a survey of 300 North Carolina voters living in the 45^th NC House District with a margin of error of +/- 5.66%. The survey is the project of Strategic Partners Solutions and is conducted by Paul Shumaker and Dee Stewart, two well-know Republican consultants to numerous state and federal candidates. This survey was conducted on August 20-21, 2012 through an automated phone system. Phone surveys are a snapshot of voters’ opinions and are subject to other factors that may influence the margin of error not present in personal interviews surveys. However, they are an effective measure of public opinion and provide valuable insight into the opinions of all voters.

The Strategic Insights Survey is designed to provide insight into the opinions of voters on federal, state and local issues facing North Carolina. The surveys are conducted by an automated phone system using a random sample generated by a file of North Carolina voters. The survey is a snapshot of voters’ opinion on the key issues of the day. It is important to remember that public opinion is fluid and is subject to change over time. Polls are not predictors of the future. They are a reflection of opinion based upon the current set of information available in the public arena at a given point in time.

Souce: Strategic Partners Solutions