Key battleground district within margin for both candidates, but political trend favors Pate candidacy

RALEIGH –October 20, 2010– In April 2010, the Carolina Opinion Survey showed incumbent N.C. Sen. Don Davis holding a three percent lead over Republican challenger Louis Pate.  Five months later, the latest Carolina Opinion Survey shows the margin has shifted to a two-percent advantage for challenger Pate.

This race in Greene, Wayne and Pitt counties could be one of the closest elections in the state this year and success will hinge on voter turnout.  Internal survey numbers show that Sen. Davis failed to improve his standing among Democratic voters while challenger Pate has solidified his Republican base and is making substantial gains among Unaffiliated voters.

In April, Sen. Davis led among Democratic voters with a 49 point margin over Pate, 66 percent to 17 percent.  The 49 point margin remains in October with Davis receiving 71 percent of the Democratic vote to Pate’s 22 percent.  During the same time, challenger Pate has moved from an 80 point margin among Republicans (two percent Davis to 82 percent Pate) to an 87 point margin in October (three percent Davis to 90 percent Pate).

Most significant is the shift of the Unaffiliated voters for Pate and Republicans in general.  In April, Pate’s advantage among Unaffiliated voters stood at seven points – 28 percent Davis to 35 percent Pate.  Pate is now receiving 53 percent of the Unaffiliated vote to Davis’ 29 percent for a 24 point advantage to Pate.  This shift is echoed on the generic ballot test when in April, Unaffiliated voters preferred a generic Republican candidate for state legislature over a Democratic candidate 37 percent to 26 percent.  In the October survey, 66 percent of Unaffiliated voters prefer a Republican candidate for state legislature to only 20 percent preference for the Democrats.

As for right now, incumbent Davis is facing a strong headwind in his effort to win reelection this year as 68 percent of voters think the economy will stay the same or get worse compared to 30 percent who think it will get better.

While this district is one that leans Democratic, the current political climate has created an opportunity for a Republican victory.  This one will be close but trend line favors the right.

Download PDF Version of Survey Questions.

Download PDF Version of Crosstabs.

About the Carolina Opinion Survey

The Carolina Opinion Survey is a survey of 400 North Carolina voters living in the 5th NC Senate District with a margin of error of +/- 5.00%.  The survey was conducted on October 14, 2010 through an automated phone system.  Phone surveys are a snapshot of voters’ opinions and are subject to other factors that may influence the margin of error not present in personal interviews surveys.  However, they are an effective measure of public opinion and provide valuable insight into the opinions of all voters.

The Carolina Opinion Survey is designed to provide insight into the opinions of voters on federal, state and local issues facing North Carolina.  The surveys are conducted by an automated phone system using a random sample generated by a file of North Carolina voters.   The survey is a snapshot of voters’ opinion on the key issues of the day.  It is important to remember that public opinion is fluid and is subject to change over time.  Polls are not predictors of the future.  They are a reflection of opinion based upon the current set of information available in the public arena at a given point in time.

Source: Carolina Strategy Group

Political Environment of great benefit to GOP’s Moffitt as Election Day draws near

RALEIGH – October 18, 2010–The most recent Carolina Opinion Survey showed that 50 percent of voters living in North Carolina’s 116^th House District (Buncombe County) would vote for Republican challenger Tim Moffitt over Democratic incumbent Jane Whilden who received 32 percent of the vote.   Among likely voters in this election, the margin for Moffitt expanded to 53 percent to 31 percent.

Moffitt’s numbers reflect the current political trend, and he benefits from an opponent who remains relatively unknown in mid-October.   Overall, Rep. Jane Whilden has a net negative rating of -11 with a 15 percent favorable to 26 percent unfavorable rating;  59 percent of voters said they did not know her.

With just two weeks to go to Election Day, the incumbent Whilden is clearly in trouble.  In this Republican leaning district, the Republican Party is united and Unaffiliated voters prefer a Republican candidate.  With a less-than-united Party behind her, the Democratic candidate is clearly going against the tide in House District 116.

The Republican challenger, Tim Moffitt, has a net positive of +4 with a 25 percent favorable to 21 percent unfavorable with 53 percent of voters saying they did not know him.  With both candidates still relatively unknown at this point, the political structure and issue set driving the vote in this election clearly benefit Moffitt.

The generic ballot test shows that 58 percent of voters preferred a Republican legislative candidate to just 32 percent of voters who preferred a Democratic candidate.  Republicans are united with 91 percent stating their loyalty to the GOP ballot, while 24 percent of Democrats stated they preferred a Republican candidate over a Democratic candidate.  Only 67 percent of Democrats said they preferred a candidate from their party.  Unaffiliated voters continue to give the nod to Republicans with 53 percent choosing Republican to 31 percent Democrat.

Although relatively unknown, Moffitt receives 82 percent of the Republican vote to just two percent for Whilden.  Whilden receives 73 percent of the Democratic vote to Moffitt’s 17 percent.  Unaffiliated voters reflect their preference for Republican candidates this year, giving Moffitt 46 percent to Whilden’s 25 percent.

The mood of the voters and their attitudes towards government and the economy is fueling the vote for Republican Moffitt.  In the survey, 62 percent of voters said North Carolina was headed in the wrong direction compared to only 24 percent who said right direction.  Results showed that 78 percent of voters said the economy would get worse or stay the same compared to 17 percent who said it would get better.

Even Democrats were less than optimistic about the economy with 69 percent saying it would stay the same or get worse while 28 percent said it would get better.  Republicans are united about their feelings towards the economy with only five percent saying it would get better with 92 percent saying it would stay the same or get worse.

On the issue of managing the state debt and budget, 58 percent of voters preferred the Republican Party to 27 percent for the Democratic Party.   Among Democrats, 28 percent said they preferred the Republican Party to just two percent of Republican who preferred the Democratic Party.  Party preference for both Democrats and Republicans on this issue stands at 58 percent for the Democrats to a clearly united Republican Party with 91 percent.

Download PDF Version of Survey Questions.

Download PDF Version of Crosstabs.

About the Carolina Opinion Survey

The Carolina Opinion Survey is a survey of 300 North Carolina voters living in the 116th NC House District with a margin of error of +/- 5.77%.  The survey was conducted on October 12, 2010 through an automated phone system.  Phone surveys are a snapshot of voters’ opinions and are subject to other factors that may influence the margin of error not present in personal interviews surveys.  However, they are an effective measure of public opinion and provide valuable insight into the opinions of all voters.

The Carolina Opinion Survey is designed to provide insight into the opinions of voters on federal, state and local issues facing North Carolina.  The surveys are conducted by an automated phone system using a random sample generated by a file of North Carolina voters.   The survey is a snapshot of voters’ opinion on the key issues of the day.  It is important to remember that public opinion is fluid and is subject to change over time.  Polls are not predictors of the future.  They are a reflection of opinion based upon the current set of information available in the public arena at a given point in time.

Source: Carolina Strategy Group

RALEIGH –October 14, 2010– The latest Carolina Strategy Group survey of N.C. House District 77 shows that N.C. Rep. Lorene Coates continues to hold the lead.

The internal numbers of a June survey depicted a political environment favoring Republicans and raised the question of whether the Democratic incumbent could win against a rising GOP tide.

As for now, the answer is yes.

A June Carolina Strategy Group survey in N.C. House 77 showed Rep. Coates with a commanding 16 percentage point lead over Republican challenger Harry Warren. The June ballot test stood at 49 percent Coates to 33 percent Warren.  Located in the central Piedmont, N.C. House District 77 includes parts of Rowan County.

The most recent Carolina Opinion Survey, conducted October 6- 7, 2010, shows Rep. Coates with a 48 percent to 39 percent lead over Republican Warren.  The incumbent has solid support within her own party; she receives 84 percent of the Democratic vote to Warren’s nine percent.  Her lead is produced by the split in Unaffiliated voters: Coates wins those slightly, 38 percent to 37 percent.  This is the first Carolina Opinion Survey in 2010 in which a Democratic candidate led among Unaffiliated voters.

Since the June CSG survey, the generic ballot test has improved for Republicans.  In June, the generic ballot was tied at 41 percent.  The generic ballot test now gives a six point advantage to Republicans, 48 to 42 percent.  Among likely voters, that advantage grew to nine points, 49 percent Republican to 40 percent Democratic.

Significantly, the CSG survey showed that the economy is still driving the vote.  Only 25 percent of voters think it will improve while 71 percent think the economy will stay the same or get worse.  Unaffiliated voters’ sentiment is closer to the Republican view regarding the economic outlook.

On the issue of controlling the state debt and managing the budget, voters think Republicans would do a better job than the Democrats by a 49 to 38 percent margin.  Democrats preferred their own party 75 percent to 13 percent, while Republicans who selected their own 80 percent to 4 percent.  Unaffiliated voters were more inclined to prefer Republicans to manage the budget with 56 percent selecting Republicans to only 28 percent choosing Democrats.

Clearly, Representative Coates is holding onto a lead.  Her Republican challenger has failed to move voters or improve his ballot position.  He remains unknown by more than 56 percent of the voters in the district while Coates maintains a 41 percent favorable 31 percent unfavorable image among all voters.

With less than three weeks to Election Day, the leader in this district appears to be only holding on.

Download PDF Version of Survey Questions.

Download PDF Version of Crosstabs.

About the Carolina Opinion Survey

The Carolina Opinion Survey is a survey of 300 North Carolina voters living in the 77^th NC House District with a margin of error of +/- 5.77%.  The survey was conducted on October 7, 2010 through an automated phone system.  Phone surveys are a snapshot of voters’ opinions and are subject to other factors that may influence the margin of error not present in personal interviews surveys.  However, they are an effective measure of public opinion and provide valuable insight into the opinions of all voters.

The Carolina Opinion Survey is designed to provide insight into the opinions of voters on federal, state and local issues facing North Carolina.  The surveys are conducted by an automated phone system using a random sample generated by a file of North Carolina voters.   The survey is a snapshot of voters’ opinion on the key issues of the day.  It is important to remember that public opinion is fluid and is subject to change over time.  Polls are not predictors of the future.  They are a reflection of opinion based upon the current set of information available in the public arena at a given point in time.

Source: Carolina Strategy Group

RALEIGH –October 12, 2010– The most recent Carolina Opinion Survey shows that voters in N.C. House District 81 (Davidson County) still prefer Republican candidate Rayne Brown to Democratic incumbent Representative Hugh Holliman.

The October 4-5 survey shows Republican challenger Brown maintaining a 50 percent to 36 percent lead over Democratic incumbent Holliman.  Brown appears to be sustaining her electoral advantage over several months: A previous Carolina Opinion Survey in May 2010 showed Brown with a ballot advantage of 45 percent to 39 percent.

During the same time period, Democratic Rep. Holliman’s image has moved from a -5 point net unfavorable image (27 percent favorable to 32 percent unfavorable) to a -11 point net negative image (33 percent favorable to 44 percent unfavorable).  As the election enters the final weeks, this is clearly not where an incumbent should be trending.

The voting trend in this district, which clearly leans GOP, demonstrates the magnitude of the Republican tide building across North Carolina.

Brown’s image improved slightly from her May numbers of a +16 net favorable image (31 percent favorable to 15 percent unfavorable) compared to October numbers of a +19 net favorable image (39 percent favorable to 20 percent unfavorable).

In mid-October, the election appears to be all about Holliman’s campaign: The incumbent has failed to move beyond his traditional Democratic voters in a district where he needs both Republican and Unaffiliated voters to win.

On the ballot test, Rep. Holliman receives 68 percent of his base Democratic vote to Brown’s 21 percent of Democratic vote.  Brown dominates the Republican vote with 81 percent to Holliman’s 13 percent.  Notably, Brown pulls more Democratic voters away from Holliman than the percentage of Republican voters Holliman is receiving.  Even among Unaffiliated voters, Brown continues to dominate by receiving 51 percent of their vote compared to just 13 percent for Holliman.

Another factor that points to a Republican victory in November is the generic ballot test on voters’ preference between a Democratic or Republican candidate for the state legislature.  In May, Republicans held a four percentage point lead – 44 percent Republican to 40 percent Democratic.  In October, the Republicans led 52 percent to 34 percent on the generic ballot test. Among likely voters, the generic ballot grew to a 20 percent Republican advantage.

The issue set for incumbent Holliman will pose the greatest challenge this year as Democrats struggle to address voters concerns.  Only 23 percent of voters in the House district stated that they believe the economy would improve this year; 74 percent said it would get worse or stay the same.

Significantly, 53 percent of voters said that they believe Republicans can do a better job at managing the state debt compared to only 30 percent who said the Democrats would do a better job.  With voters expressing concerns about the economy and government debt, the Democratic incumbent is clearly affected by voters’ trends.

The race apparently has little to do with Brown’s Republican candidacy. Voter preferences appear to be driven more by the Democratic incumbent and his actions which have clearly angered voters.

Download PDF Version of Survey Questions.

Download PDF Version of Crosstabs.

About the Carolina Opinion Survey

The Carolina Opinion Survey is a survey of 300 North Carolina voters living in the 81st NC House District with a margin of error of +/- 5.77%.  The survey was conducted on October 4-5, 2010 through an automated phone system.  Phone surveys are a snapshot of voters’ opinions and are subject to other factors that may influence the margin of error not present in personal interviews surveys.  However, they are an effective measure of public opinion and provide valuable insight into the opinions of all voters.

The Carolina Opinion Survey is designed to provide insight into the opinions of voters on federal, state and local issues facing North Carolina.  The surveys are conducted by an automated phone system using a random sample generated by a file of North Carolina voters.   The survey is a snapshot of voters’ opinion on the key issues of the day.  It is important to remember that public opinion is fluid and is subject to change over time.  Polls are not predictors of the future.  They are a reflection of opinion based upon the current set of information available in the public arena at a given point in time.

Source: Carolina Strategy Group

Raleigh, N.C. – In what appears to be a surge of voter backlash over accusations of criminal conduct, Republican candidate Buck Newton has expanded his lead over incumbent Democratic Senator A.B. Swindell to 10 percent in the intense battle for North Carolina’s 11th district Senate seat, according to a new SurveyUSA poll released today by the Civitas Institute.

According to the poll of 300 registered voters in that district, comprised of Nash and Wilson counties, 50 percent of voters said they would vote for Newton if the election for state senator were held today, a 3 percent increase since last month.  Forty-percent of voters said they would vote for Swindell, and 10 percent said they are undecided.

This is up four percentage points from a Civitas poll taken roughly one month ago where Newton led Swindell 47 percent to 41 percent.

“We’re seeing a case of heavy voter backlash against Swindell’s accusations that Newton was arrested on drug charges,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes.  “While Swindell was trailing Newton last month, this incident may prove too much for him to mount a significant comeback before November as most voters feel the line of attack was out of bounds.”

Seventy-two percent of voters who had heard something about the mailer said that it went too far.

Evidence of voter backlash is also seen in an erosion of Swindell’s favorability rating and a large upswing in Newton’s.  Swindell’s unfavorable numbers greatly increased (20% favorable-21% unfavorable in September) to 19 percent favorable-37 percent unfavorable, giving him a -18 favorable rating.  Additionally, more Democratic voters hold an unfavorable opinion of the senator than those who view him favorably by a 29 percent-25 percent margin.

Conversely, Newton holds a net +23 favorability rating as 41 percent of voters view him favorably while 18 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, a 16 percent increase from September (25% favorable-13% unfavorable).   He is viewed favorably by Republican (64% favorable-11% unfavorable) and unaffiliated voters (39% favorable-23% unfavorable), as well as Democrats by 26 percent-22 percent.

Moreover, 53 percent of voters said they believe Newton is telling the truth about the campaign mailer’s accusations in comparison to 11 percent who believe Swindell.  Looking at party affiliation, just 3 percent of unaffiliated voters said they believe Swindell while 58 percent think Newton is telling the truth.

“It is clear that when the Swindell campaign and the NC Democratic Party decided to stand by the mailer after Newton’s evidence, voters determined that it went against their sense of fairness and are thusly punishing Swindell,” added Hayes.

Senate District 11 is rated as a D+4 district on Civitas’ North Carolina Partisan Index – an index that rates the relative partisan voting habits of individual legislative districts.  For more on the NCPI, click here.

For full results and crosstabs from the poll, click here.

The survey of 300 registered voters was taken October 8-10 by SurveyUSA on behalf of the Civitas Institute using the Interactive Voice Response (IVR) method.  It carries a margin of error of +/- 5.8%.

This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S. Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ.
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Source: Civitas Institute

Raleigh, N.C. – According to a new SurveyUSA poll released today by the Civitas Institute, Republican candidate Jim Davis has increased his lead to 16 percent over Democratic incumbent Sen. John Snow, who is looking to maintain his seat in state Senate District 50.

According to the poll of 350 registered voters in that district, 53 percent said they would vote for Davis if the election for state senator were held today, a 9 percent increase since May.  Thirty-seven percent of voters said they would vote for Snow, and 9 percent said they are undecided.

Davis’ lead slightly increases to 55 percent-36 percent when looking at those who said they are most likely voting in 2010.  He currently has the support of both Republican (83 percent-9 percent) and unaffiliated (59 percent-23 percent) voters in the district.  Democratic voters are backing Snow by a 72 percent-23 percent margin.

“Davis has greatly increased his lead over Snow since May when the two were virtually tied, and continues to garner more support from Republican and unaffiliated voters who are abandoning the Democratic party this election season,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes.

Snow, while better known among voters due to his three-term incumbency, has a -1 favorable rating as his favorability margin stands at 34 percent favorable-35 percent unfavorable.  Twenty-five percent of voters said they are neutral, and 5 percent said they have no opinion.

Conversely, 45 percent of voters have an opinion of Davis and his campaign for state senator (29 percent favorable-16 percent unfavorable), for a net +13 favorability rating.  Thirty-nine percent of voters said they are neutral, and 16 percent have no opinion of him.

“Snow is facing a difficult re-election bid as anti-incumbent sentiment grows in a leaning Republican district,” added Hayes.

Senate District 50 is rated as an R+6 district on Civitas’ North Carolina Partisan Index – an index that rates the relative partisan voting habits of individual legislative districts.  For more on the NCPI, click here.

In addition, 44 percent of the district’s voters believe Snow is a moderate while 36 percent say he is a liberal.  Nine percent said he is a conservative, and 11 percent said they are not sure.

For full results and crosstabs from the poll, click here.

The survey of 350 registered voters was taken October 1-3 by SurveyUSA on behalf of the Civitas Institute using the Interactive Voice Response (IVR) method.  It carries a margin of error of +/- 5.3%.

This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S. Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ.
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Source: Civitas Institute

Raleigh, N.C. – Republican candidate Rick Gunn holds a narrow, tenuous lead over Democratic incumbent Tony Foriest in the contest for North Carolina’s 24th Senate District seat, according to a new SurveyUSA poll released today by the Civitas Institute.

According to the poll of 350 registered voters in that district, which covers Alamance and Caswell counties, 46 percent of voters said they would vote for Gunn if the election for state senator were held today.  Forty-two percent of voters said they would vote for Foriest, and 7 percent said they would vote for Libertarian candidate Barry Cole.  Five percent of voters said they are undecided.

Gunn’s primary support is coming from Republican voters (84 percent-7 percent), along with unaffiliateds by a 45 percent-22 percent margin.  Foriest leads Democratic voters by 76 percent-20 percent.

However, a significant gender gap has emerged with Foriest holding a substantial lead among women, 52-36.  Gunn, meanwhile, holds a large lead among men voters 59-28.

“With the large demographic split between the two candidates and the potential for the Libertarian to play the role of spoiler, this race is going to come down to the wire,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes. “Although Gunn holds a slim lead right now, both candidates are going to have to pull out all the stops to squeak past the finish line.”

Foriest, currently serving his second Senate term, is relatively well known among voters in the district as 63 percent have an opinion of him (33 percent favorable-30 percent unfavorable), for a net +3 favorable rating.  Twenty-eight percent of voters said they are neutral, and 10 percent said they have no opinion of him.

Gunn, a real estate executive, is similarly recognized among voters as 34 percent said they view him favorably, while 24 percent their opinion of him is unfavorable, for a net +10 favorability rating.  Thirty-one percent of voters said they are neutral, and 11 percent said they have no opinion of his candidacy.

“With both candidates fairly well known, this race will come down to turnout and those last minute messages to undecided voters,” added Hayes.

Senate District 24 is rated as an R+3 district on Civitas’ North Carolina Partisan Index – an index that rates the relative partisan voting habits of individual legislative districts.  For more on the NCPI, click here.

For full results and crosstabs from the poll, click here.

The survey of 350 registered voters was taken October 4-5 by SurveyUSA on behalf of the Civitas Institute using the Interactive Voice Response (IVR) method.  It carries a margin of error of +/- 5.3%.

This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S. Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ.
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Raleigh, N.C. – Democratic Rep. Patsy Keever is leading her Republican opponent Mark Crawford as they campaign for the state House District 115 seat, according to a new SurveyUSA poll released today by the Civitas Institute.

According to the poll of 350 registered voters in that district, comprised of Buncombe County, 54 percent of voters said if the election for state representative were held today they would vote for Keever.  Thirty-four percent of voters said they would vote for Crawford, and 12 percent said they are undecided.

“Keever has a sizeable lead heading into November with generous support from base Democratic voters within the district,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes.  “Her name recognition among voters from serving on the Buncombe County Commission and previous campaigns looks to be paying off.”

Keever, who was appointed in September to fill the remainder of the term of Rep. Bruce Goforth, whom she defeated in the Democratic primary, has a +21 favorability rating (41 percent favorable-20 percent unfavorable) among voters.  Twenty-five percent of voters said they are neutral, and 14 percent said they have no opinion.

Despite Crawford having served as a former state representative, he is generally unknown to a majority of voters in the district.  Thirty-three percent of voters have an opinion of him (15 percent favorable-18 percent unfavorable), for a -3 favorable rating.  Thirty-one percent of voters said they are neutral, and 35 percent said they have no opinion of his candidacy.

“Crawford has a difficult race ahead of him in a leaning Democratic district,” added Hayes.

House District 115 is rated as a D+7 district on Civitas’ North Carolina Partisan Index – an index that rates the relative partisan voting habits of individual legislative districts.  For more on the NCPI, click here.

For full results and crosstabs from the poll, click here.

The survey of 350 registered voters was taken October 1-3 by SurveyUSA on behalf of the Civitas Institute using the Interactive Voice Response (IVR) method.  It carries a margin of error of +/- 5.3%.

This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S. Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ.
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Raleigh, N.C. – According to a new SurveyUSA poll released today by the Civitas Institute, Republican candidate Thom Goolsby is maintaining a wide lead of 17 percent lead over Democratic opponent Jim Leutze in the race for North Carolina’s open 9th District Senate seat.

According to the poll of 350 registered voters in that district, which covers New Hanover County, 55 percent said if the election for state senator were held today they would vote for Goolsby who is looking to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Julia Boseman.  Thirty-eight percent of voters said they would vote for Leutze, and seven percent said they are undecided.

When looking at most likely voters in 2010, Goolsby’s lead jumps to a 62 percent-32 percent margin.  Additionally, Republicans are backing Goolsby 87 percent-9 percent while unaffiliated voters also support him by a 61 percent-28 percent margin, a six percent increase from May.  Democratic voters are supporting Leutze by a 75 percent-20 percent margin.

“Goolsby has maintained his favorable standing with voters and rallied his base Republican vote, including a large majority of unaffiliated voters who are overwhelmingly supporting Republican candidates across the state,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes.

A competitive primary and aggressive campaign appear to have benefitted Goolsby as 63 percent of the district’s voters have an opinion of him (44 percent favorable-19 percent unfavorable), for a net +25 favorable rating.  Twenty-seven percent of voters said they are neutral, and 10 percent said they have no opinion on his candidacy.

Conversely, Leutze, former chancellor of the University of North Carolina at Wilmington, has a net zero favorability rating as 23 percent of voters view him both favorably and unfavorably.  Thirty-two percent of voters’ opinions are neutral, and 22 percent said they have no opinion on Leutze’s campaign for state senator.

“Leutze’s campaign just hasn’t grabbed hold and engaged voters,” added Hayes.  “With the report out recently that the state Democratic Party would not be investing resources in the race, Leutze’s uphill climb just became much steeper.”

Senate District 9 is rated as an R+3 district on Civitas’ North Carolina Partisan Index – an index that rates the relative partisan voting habits of individual legislative districts.  For more on the NCPI, click here.

Meanwhile, voters in the district continue to support drilling for oil and natural gas off the coast of North Carolina by a 52 percent-41 percent margin.  Republican support for drilling stands at 67 percent-25 percent, while Democratic support decreases to 32 percent-59 percent.  Support for drilling off the state’s coast among unaffiliated voters increased 13 percent since May to 62 percent-36 percent.

For full results and crosstabs from the poll, click here.

The survey of 350 registered voters was taken September 22-23 by SurveyUSA on behalf of the Civitas Institute using the Interactive Voice Response (IVR) method.  It carries a margin of error of +/- 5.3%.

This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S. Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ.
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Source: Civitas Institute

Raleigh, N.C. – In the election for North Carolina’s open 8th Senate District seat, Republican Bill Rabon has expanded his lead over Democratic challenger David Redwine to nineteen percentage points, a four point increase since May, according to a new SurveyUSA poll released today by the Civitas Institute.

According to the poll of 350 registered voters in that district, which is comprised of Brunswick, Columbus, and Pender counties, 53 percent said they would vote for Rabon if the election for state senator were held today.  Thirty-four percent of voters said they would vote for Redwine, and 13 percent said they are undecided.

Contributing to Rabon’s lead is strong support from unaffiliated voters who he leads by a 55 percent-25 percent margin, a four percent increase since May.  Among most likely voters in 2010, Rabon’s lead slightly increases to 57 percent-32 percent of voters.

“Rabon has maintained momentum from a competitive primary and is capitalizing upon the unaffiliated voter shift away from Democrats,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes.  “It is going to take a major investment from Redwine and the state Democratic Party to make this race competitive.”

Redwine, a former state representative, is seen favorably by just 16 percent of voters while 21 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, for a -5 favorability rating.  This is a 12 percent drop in support from May when Redwine’s favorable rating was +7 (20 percent favorable-13 percent unfavorable).  Forty percent of voters said they are neutral, and 23 percent said they have no opinion.

Conversely, 46 percent of voters have an opinion of Rabon (34 percent favorable-12 percent unfavorable), giving him a net +22 favorable rating, a three percent increase since May.  Thirty-five percent of voters said they are neutral, and 19 percent said they have no opinion on his candidacy.

“We continue to see voters’ moods sour toward Democratic candidates as enthusiasm and reception toward Republicans is increasing across much of the state,” added Hayes.  “Redwine is feeling the brunt of this storm.”

Senate District 8 is rated as an R+3 district on Civitas’ North Carolina Partisan Index – an index that rates the relative partisan voting habits of individual legislative districts.  For more on the NCPI, click here.

For full results and crosstabs from the poll, click here.

The survey of 350 registered voters was taken September 22-23 by SurveyUSA on behalf of the Civitas Institute using the Interactive Voice Response (IVR) method.  It carries a margin of error of +/- 5.3%.

This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S. Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ.
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